'Top Gun' in, Tom Cruise out? Our Oscar predictions in top categories

Oscar nominations are out Tuesday morning, and a handful of very popular crowd pleasers figure to be in the mix.

"Top Gun: Maverick" and "Avatar: The Way of Water," which have combined for roughly $3.4 billion at the global box office, will likely snag nominations in the Best Picture field. That's in addition to fan favorites such as "Elvis" and "Everything Everywhere All at Once," which should help make for the widest reaching slate of Best Picture nominees in years.

Elsewhere, big names such as Brendan Fraser, Colin Farrell, Cate Blanchett and Steven Spielberg should find themselves in the mix in other top categories, while first-timers such as Paul Mescal and Danielle Deadwyler look to join the fray. Here in Michigan, a big question is whether David Siev's "Bad Axe" earns a nomination in the Best Documentary category; it's one of 15 titles vying for a nomination, and has an outside chance of getting in.

Predicting these things is an inexact science, but that's half the fun. So here are my best guesses as to this year's nominees in Oscar's top categories.

Best Picture

The field: This much we know: There will be 10 nominees this year, and seven — "Avatar," "Banshees," "Elvis," "Everything Everywhere," "Fabelmans," "Tár" and "Top Gun" — are locks. That leaves three slots for a handful of wildcards. Netflix's World War I drama "All Quiet on the Western Front" has been picking up steam of late, nabbing a leading 14 nominations at this weeks BAFTA announcement, and it would be foolish to bet against the female-led "Women Talking." The quiet "Aftersun" remains a sentimental favorite, but could find itself outshined by distributor A24's other hopeful, the showier "The Whale." Don't count out the Palme d'Or winning "Triangle of Sadness" or the Indian epic "RRR," but they may find themselves on the outside looking in, along with the divisive "Babylon," "The Woman King" (peaked too early) and the clever but too slight "Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery."

Final predictions: "All Quiet on the Western Front," "Avatar: The Way of Water," "The Banshees of Inisherin," "Elvis," "Everything Everywhere All at Once," "The Fabelmans," "Tár," "Top Gun: Maverick," "The Whale," "Women Talking"

Best Actress

The field: Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh are all the way in — it will be Blanchett's eighth nomination (she has two wins) and Yeoh's first — and they will likely be joined by "The Woman King's" Viola Davis (the Oscar winner's fifth nomination) and first-timer Danielle Deadwyler for "Till." Then it gets tricky. Category wonkiness could work against Michelle Williams, a four-time nominee, who is being pushed in this category despite playing a supporting role in "The Fabelmans." If she's out, that could open up a position for "Empire of Light's" Olivia Colman or, more likely, Ana de Armas, whose role as Marilyn Monroe in the challenging "Blonde" was more admired than the film itself. De Armas slipping in over Williams would be an upset, but what are the Oscars without a little drama?

Final predictions: Ana de Armas, "Blonde," Cate Blanchett, "Tár," Viola Davis, "The Woman King," Danielle Deadwyler, "Till," Michelle Yeoh, "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

Best Actor

The field: A pair of first-time nominees, Colin Farrell and Brendan Fraser, will be duking it out in this category. In fact, the category could entirely be filled by first-timers: Austin Butler is in for "Elvis," and veteran actor Bill Nighy, 73, is likely to be nominated for his quiet, picture perfect work in "Living" (which opens in area theaters Friday). So who gets the fifth spot? Tom Cruise, a three-time nominee, could earn his first nomination since 2000 for "Top Gun: Maverick," while "The Son's" Hugh Jackman (previously nominated for "Les Misérables") and "Hustle's" Adam Sandler have a chance of elbowing their way into the race. Yet look for "Aftersun's" Paul Mescal to nab that last spot, making the field all newbies to the Oscar party. (Don't worry about Cruise, he'll be fine, his movie just made $1.5 billion.)

Final predictions: Austin Butler, "Elvis," Colin Farrell, "The Banshees of Inisherin," Brendan Fraser, "The Whale," Paul Mescal, "Aftersun," Bill Nighy, "Living"

Best Supporting Actress

The field: As the queen of Wakanda, Angela Bassett — not nominated since 1993's "What's Love Got to Do With It" — looks to be picking up her first Oscar. Competing against her are likely to be "The Banshees of Inisherin" scene stealer Kerry Condon, Hong Chau for "The Whale" (it's the wrong role, she was much better in "The Menu," but whatever) and the "Everything Everywhere All at Once" pair of Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu (neither of whom have been nominated for Oscars previously). If anyone here is vulnerable, it's Hsu, because the "Women Talking" pair of Claire Foy and Jessie Buckley are waiting for their call (if they don't cancel each other out, that is), as is the ace up "Triangle of Sadness'" sleeve, Dolly De Leon. Carey Mulligan, a two-time nominee, is circling the category for "She Said," but the journalism drama has been slow to catch fire in guild and critic awards. Give Hsu the slightest of edges, and she will benefit if the Academy goes all in on "Everything," as expected.

Final predictions: Angela Bassett, "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever," Hong Chau, "The Whale," Kerry Condon, "The Banshees of Inisherin," Jamie Lee Curtis, "Everything Everywhere All at Once," Stephanie Hsu, "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

Best Supporting Actor

The field: "Everything Everywhere's" Ke Huy Quan is the year's most heartwarming comeback story, and wouldn't it be something if the "Encino Man" duo of Quan and Brendan Fraser both walk away with awards come Oscar night? (We can only hope they would both thank Pauly Shore.) Elsewhere, two films could double down to round out the nominees: "The Banshees of Inisherin" (Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan) and "The Fabelmans" (Paul Dano, Judd Hirsch). Potential spoilers include "Causeway's" Brian Tyree Henry (worthy!), "Elvis'" Tom Hanks, "The Good Nurse's" Eddie Redmayne (both not worthy!) and "Women Talking's" Ben Whishaw, although the firestorm that would erupt if "Women Talking's" only acting nominee goes to a male would not be pretty to see.

Final predictions: Paul Dano, "The Fabelmans," Brendan Gleeson, "The Banshees of Inisherin," Judd Hirsch, "The Fabelmans," Barry Keoghan, "The Banshees of Inisherin," Ke Huy Quan, "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

Best Director

The field: A category where anything can happen. Well, there are a handful of likely nominees: Daniels, Todd Field, Martin McDonagh and Steven Spielberg (vying for his ninth nomination, and third win) should all make the final list. But what happens with that last spot? This is a category that loves to shake things up: recent years have seen Ryusuke Hamaguchi ("Drive My Car"), Thomas Vinterberg ("Another Round") and Paweł Pawlikowski ("Cold War") sneak into the contest. That bodes well for "All Quiet on the Western Front's" Edward Berger, but don't forget about "RRR's" S.S. Rajamouli or "Triangle of Sadness'" Ruben Ostlund. But where does that leave "Women Talking's" Sarah Polley, "Elvis'" Baz Luhrmann or the directors of the year's two biggest films, "Avatar's" James Cameron and "Top Gun's" Joseph Kosinski? Possibly on the outs. We'll know come Tuesday.

Final predictions: Edward Berger, "All Quiet on the Western Front," Daniels, "Everything Everywhere All at Once," Todd Field, "Tár," Martin McDonagh, "The Banshees of Inisherin," Steven Spielberg, "The Fabelmans"

agraham@detroitnews.com

@grahamorama